Ensemble guidance
Ensemble Forecasts
Every member of NOAA’s GEFS ensemble, out to about 10 days, for 16 major U.S. cities. The spread of the lines shows how confident the forecast is, and the National Blend of Models (NBM) highs and lows are shown for comparison.
2 m temperature
City
GEFS members (6-hourly)Median and 10th–90th percentile bandNBM daily high and low (plotted at a nominal afternoon/morning time)
Precipitation
Accumulated precipitation
Running total from the start of the run, one line per member.
Times are in UTC dates along the axis. GEFS temperatures are sampled every 6 hours, so the true daily highs and lows can fall between samples. Data are NOAA GEFS 0.25° (control + 30 perturbed members) and NBM CONUS, retrieved through Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) and refreshed every 3 hours. For the pattern-scale view, see Teleconnections and Models.